Tax revenue estimate is the work to estimate the size of current year and future tax revenue that forms the basis of national finance. It is especially significant to estimate the revenue by National Assembly itself, with the aim of sustaining fiscal soundness of the nation.

  The National Assembly Budget Office (NABO) has put effort into estimating the revenue accurately since 2004, to present objective grounds in examination by National Assembly on next year’s budget deliberation.

  This report presents accumulation of NABO’s methodology study and empirical analysis of the revenue estimation, to exhibit reliability of estimated figures and seek out further improvement plan based on experts’ opinions.

  The main differences of the presented model from the previous ones are as following:

  First, estimation was done not by typical type of tax but by tax base or source of the revenue. This enables more subtle analysis of estimation and better reflection of yearly tax reform.

  Second, we also try to establish the model that applies economic fluctuation better by diversifying explanatory variables and estimation technique.

  NABO’s work to restore the revenue estimation model shall decrease prediction error and restore efficiency and soundness of fiscal operation.