NABO Mid-Term Economic Outlook 2008-2012

  • 2008-10-30
  • 377

As the government submitted the Nation’s Fiscal Management Plan 2008-2012 to the National Assembly based on the National Fiscal Act enacted in 2006, in-depth analyses on the soundness of nation’s finance, tax revenue and government’s expenditure, and the effective budget allocation over the middle-term are required. In order to support effective evaluation on the Nation’s Fiscal Management Plan 2008-2012, the National Assembly Budget Office provides NABO Middle-Term Economic Outlook 2008-2012 and updates the report annually according to the government annual submission.

NABO's mid-term economic projection for 2008-2012 can be summarized as follows: Korea’s annual economic growth rate from 2008-2012 is expected to be 4.5% which is 0.3% point lower than it from 2005 to 2007. More specifically, the Korean economy is growing at the annual rate of 4.2% in 2008 and is expected to record 3.7% in the year 2009. It will be picking up to 4.6%, 4.9%, and 4.8% in 2010, 2011, and 2012 respectively.

The reason why Korea’s economic growth rate is expected to be lower during 2008-2012 is that the domestic demand’s contribution to Korean economic growth will be continuously weak while net-expert’s contribution to Korean economic growth will be decreasing because of the spread of turbulence in the international financial market into the world economy. Domestic absorption will be continued to slacken due to no alleviation of the excessive debt of household and the decline in employment, which is likely to depress household spending further. The contribution rate of the private consumption to economic growth will decrease from 43.8% during 2005-2007 to 36.3% during 2008-2012 and that of facilities investment from 16.1% to 8.9% while net export’s contribution rate will increase from 27.6% to 36% at the same period.