The Korean economy is projected to expand 3.8% in 2015, 0.2%p more rapidly than in 2014 when it expanded 3.6%. For several reasons, the economic recovery is expected to be relatively weak compared to the periods right before and after the global financial crisis. The economy recorded annual average growth of 5.4% in 2006~2007 and 5.1% in 2010~2011. First, Korean exports will improve only slowly because of weak demand in China stemming from the slow recovery of global trade volume. Second, despite the plan implemented by the newly-formed economic team to facilitate domestic demand and the Bank of Korea's cutting of the key interest rate, the recovery in domestic demand will be tempered by the weakening of the structure of the workforce, characterized by an increasing number of elderly and temporary workers in the low-wage life service sector and the slowdown in growth in real wages. Third, the refinancing risks of low-profit businesses with low credit ratings are rising because such companies are struggling to raise adequate capital and corporate profits more generally are deteriorating. Consumption is not expected for the foreseeable future because the low-income sector is overleveraged.

The Korean economy is expected to mark annual growth of 3.8% between 2016 and 2018, slightly above the forecast annual average rate of 3.7% for 2014 and 2015. It should benefit from gradual growth in the global economy and trade, which will bolster the recovery in exports. Furthermore, as government policies designed to boost domestic demand, improve public welfare, and advance the economy yield results, consumption and domestic demand should gradually improve. Domestic demand should also rise in response to the increase in spending on R&D; the higher value added ratio in the service sector such as the medical, tourism, and financial industries; expansion in investment opportunities; sound management of household debt; improvement in the employment rate of women and youths; and reform in the public sector.