This report provides the National Assembly Budget Office’s projections of total revenue at the central government level for the next 5 years including the current year.
Due to rapid recovery of economy, total revenue in 2011 is expected to be 324.7 trillion won, an 8.4 percent increase from that in 2010. Due in part to the upswing in domestic consumption, tax revenue is expected to be 192.3 trillion won in 2011, an 8.2 percent increase from expected total revenue. Social security contribution is expected to increase 9.8 percent from 35.5 trillion won in 2010 to 39.0 trillion won in 2011. The non-tax revenue and capital revenue are expected to reach 93.4 trillion won in 2011, an 8.2 percent increase from the year before.
Total revenue in 2012 is expected to be 343.3 trillion won, a 5.7 percent increase from the forecasted amount of 2011. Growth rate of total revenue (5.7 percent) is lower than that of 2011(8.4 percent), because of slowdown of the economic growth and the European financial crisis. The growth rate of tax revenue in 2012 forecasted to grow 6.9 percent from the tax revenue in 2011. In 2012, social security contribution is expected to increase to 41.3 trillion won. The non-tax revenue and capital revenue are expected to increase 96.5 trillion won (3.4 percent) in 2012, whereas interest rate falls.
In the long-term perspective, total revenue in 2011–2015 would rise by the average annual rate of 6.1 percent, slightly below the average annual rate of expected GDP growth (6.6 percent) during the same period. Total revenue to GDP ratio would slightly fall from 26.0 percent in 2010 to 25.4 percent in 2015. Tax revenue is expected to grow at the average annual rate of 6.9 percent from 2011 to 2015. The revenue from social security contribution will increase from 39.0 trillion won in 2011 to 49.8 trillion won in 2015 with the 5.9 percent average annual growth rate. The central government’s non-tax revenue between 2011 and 2015 is expected to rise on average 5.2 percent per year, and this growth rate is lower than 7.7 percent, the average rate of growth in the previous 5 years.
The total and tax revenue forecasts of the Administration stays higher level than those of NABO constantly for the 5 fiscal years (2011–2015). This results from the government’s optimistic view for the future macroeconomic environment.
Due to rapid recovery of economy, total revenue in 2011 is expected to be 324.7 trillion won, an 8.4 percent increase from that in 2010. Due in part to the upswing in domestic consumption, tax revenue is expected to be 192.3 trillion won in 2011, an 8.2 percent increase from expected total revenue. Social security contribution is expected to increase 9.8 percent from 35.5 trillion won in 2010 to 39.0 trillion won in 2011. The non-tax revenue and capital revenue are expected to reach 93.4 trillion won in 2011, an 8.2 percent increase from the year before.
Total revenue in 2012 is expected to be 343.3 trillion won, a 5.7 percent increase from the forecasted amount of 2011. Growth rate of total revenue (5.7 percent) is lower than that of 2011(8.4 percent), because of slowdown of the economic growth and the European financial crisis. The growth rate of tax revenue in 2012 forecasted to grow 6.9 percent from the tax revenue in 2011. In 2012, social security contribution is expected to increase to 41.3 trillion won. The non-tax revenue and capital revenue are expected to increase 96.5 trillion won (3.4 percent) in 2012, whereas interest rate falls.
In the long-term perspective, total revenue in 2011–2015 would rise by the average annual rate of 6.1 percent, slightly below the average annual rate of expected GDP growth (6.6 percent) during the same period. Total revenue to GDP ratio would slightly fall from 26.0 percent in 2010 to 25.4 percent in 2015. Tax revenue is expected to grow at the average annual rate of 6.9 percent from 2011 to 2015. The revenue from social security contribution will increase from 39.0 trillion won in 2011 to 49.8 trillion won in 2015 with the 5.9 percent average annual growth rate. The central government’s non-tax revenue between 2011 and 2015 is expected to rise on average 5.2 percent per year, and this growth rate is lower than 7.7 percent, the average rate of growth in the previous 5 years.
The total and tax revenue forecasts of the Administration stays higher level than those of NABO constantly for the 5 fiscal years (2011–2015). This results from the government’s optimistic view for the future macroeconomic environment.
Revenue Estimation Team