Long-Term Care Insurance Fiscal Projections 2023-2032

Published on Oct., 10, 2023
Published by Social Cost Estimates Division

   The 「Long-Term Care Insurance Fiscal Projections 2023-2032」 predictsthe fiscal outlook of Long-Term Care Insurance over the next decade. It outlines fiscal projections under various scenarios based on policy changes and presents the premium rates required for stable fiscal management.
   The report forecasts that maintaining the current level of insurance premium rate increases will turn the fiscal balance into a deficit in 2026, with the depletion of cumulative reserves by 2031. Additionally, a fiscal forecast examined potential policy changes linked to the calculation of the national grant, presently under discussion in the National Assembly. In this forecast, allocating 20% of the anticipated health care benefits expenditure and 30% of the expected insurance premium income has the potential to delay the transition to a fiscal deficit by 3 years and 6 years, respectively. Both scenarios indicate a potential avoidance of cumulative reserve depletion within the forecast period.
   To meet fiscal objectives, the premium rate necessary to sustain fiscal balance or secure one month's worth of health care benefits as cumulative reserves was 1.28% and 1.29%, respectively. In essence, this indicates a forecasted need for a higher premium rate compared to the baseline estimate of 1.18%.