The National Assembly Budget Office (NABO) projects the economic growth rates in 2012 and in 2013 to be 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent respectively, and the average yearly growth rate from 2012 to 2016 to be 3.5 percent. Domestic economic growth is expected to grow at a slower pace, as both exports and domestic demand weaken due to deteriorating domestic and external conditions such as growing uncertainties over the fiscal crisis in Europe. Large household debt could not only hinder household consumption, but it could also impose a large burden on the national economy. The labor market maintained high employment growth despite the economic slowdown, largely driven by the increase in the labor supply of the self-employed. CPI remains stable, as its growth has slowed mainly in industrial goods and personal services. The administration’s forecast of the growth (the economic growth rate in 2013 to be 4%), however, seems optimistic, considering NABO’s forecast of the figures.

Macro-Economic Analysis Division